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Abortion's Diminishing Impact on the 2024 Elections: Trends and Predictions


In 2023, the United States witnessed over 1 million abortions, marking a 10% increase since 2020 and the highest count in a decade. States neighboring those with abortion bans experienced significant surges: Virginia saw a 76% increase, Illinois 72%, and New Mexico an astonishing 257%. The number of women traveling across state lines for abortions doubled from 2020, reaching 160,000.

In regions with supportive abortion laws, like California and New York, there were notable increases in abortion numbers. This surge suggests that the backlash against recent Supreme Court rulings might be lessening, potentially reducing the emphasis on abortion as a critical issue in the 2024 elections.

The perception that access to abortion remains relatively unaffected despite legal changes could lead to a shift in the political narrative. The Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision may, paradoxically, be seen as enhancing state-level autonomy in offering reproductive choices, challenging the narrative that access has been severely compromised.

The trend of women traveling to states with more liberal abortion laws for the procedure is rising. This phenomenon, referred to as "bus ticket abortions," may ironically benefit anti-abortion Republicans by dampening the urgency of pro-choice activism, thereby possibly increasing support for conservative candidates like Trump.